US retail sales are set to bounce back this year as low unemployment rates and increased salaries outweigh economic uncertainty, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).
The trade body expects the year’s total sales to rise between 2.7% and 3.7%, coming to $5.42 trillion to $5.48 trillion, it said Wednesday. For comparison, 2024’s total sales increased 3.6% to $5.29 trillion, in line with the average growth rate before the pandemic.
Meanwhile, the number of online purchases is predicted to climb 7% to 9%, reaching $1.57 trillion to $1.6 trillion — up from $1.47 trillion a year ago.
“Overall, the economy has shown continued momentum so far in 2025, bolstered by low unemployment and real wage gains,” said NRF CEO Matthew Shay. “However, significant policy uncertainty is weighing on consumer and business confidence.”
While “household balance sheets appear to be in good shape,” the NRF elaborated, consumer confidence is falling due to the tariffs the US is implementing — though that should not affect sales in the short term.
“Any way you look at it, a lot is riding on the consumer,” said NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “While we do expect slower growth, consumer fundamentals remain intact…. Consumer spending is not unraveling.”
Image: A woman at a shopping mall. (Shutterstock)
